CUP YTD
+6.24 units (Match-Ups)
+8.70 units (Props)
+5.42 units (Outrights)
Total: +20.36 units
Not sure if they will get this thing in tonight, weather not looking too good here in the Carolinas, tomorrow is questionable as well.
This is what I played:
Match-Ups
2.50 units Jeff Burton (-135) over David Ragan (@thegreek)
Like this one the best for today. Burton may be the most patient driver on the track and knows how to take care of his equipment, two important factors in a 600 mile marathon.
This is one of his 5 best tracks statistically(14.4 avg. in 30 starts-15 Top 10's/8 Top 5's/ 3 Wins). Won here last time out and has five Top 6 finishes in the last six races.
Also having a very good 2009 with 9 straight Top 15 runs (including 5 Top 10's). The only negative is his practice speeds (was 25th in Happy Hour) but think they will improve on that during the race. This is a proven car (chassis #271) already has ran 3 times in '09(3rd @Vegas/14th @Atlanta/12th @ Darlington) This is also the team that won the Pit Crew Challenge last week so another advantage there.
On the other hand Ragan and this Roush team has been a disappointment so far this year, only 1 Top 10 finish (@Daytona) and 7 finishes of 22nd or worse in 11 races.
1.50 units Carl Edwards (-105) over Kurt Busch (@5dimes)
Think its time for Carl to get his mojo back. Seems to run best on the 1.5 mile cookie-cutter tracks and the stats show it. Four Top 10's in the last 6 at Charlotte and this year two of his best runs were at Atlanta (3rd) and Texas (10th). Was 2nd in final practice on Saturday.
Kurt brought the car that dominated and won at Atlanta but so far has not shown that dominance in qualifying and practice (was 31st in final practice and qualified 17th). Still may run near the Top 10 but think Edwards has a chance at Top 5.
1.00 unit Kyle Busch (-130) over Jeff Gordon (@5dimes)
If Kyle makes it to the end he's definite Top 2 or 3... just don't think Gordon gets near that tonight.
1.00 unit Jamie McMurray (+105) over Martin Truex (@5dimes)
McMurray's season has been a case of good finish, bad finish but even though Jamie Mc is inconsistent he has had some good runs here (5th last race in October) and 3 Top 10's so far in 2009. Was good in both practice sessions yesterday and if things go right has a shot at the Top 10, with him though that could be a big if. Just not crazy about Truex today.
1.00 unit Juan Pablo Montoya (-125) over Sam Hornish (@5dimes)
I know this has been a horrible track for Montoya (32.2 avg. in 4 starts) mainly because of 2 crash outs, but I think that may change with this race. Like his chances at a Top 15 or maybe a little better.
Hornish should be pretty good also but with him that don't always translate to a good finish.
Props
1.5 units Kyle Busch (-115) under 6.5 (@5dimes)
Pretty simple, if Kyle finishes the 600 miles he'll be better than this number
1.00 unit Kurt Busch (-115) over 10.5 (@5dimes)
Not sure about a Top 10 for Kurt tonight
1.00 Dale Jr. (-130) under 20.5 (@5dimes)
Wow! Nobody thinks much of Jr. anymore, a Hendrick car not capable of a Top 20? I'll take a shot at it.
0.50 unit Kasey Kahne (+380) to win group (@sportsbook.com)
over Hamlin/Ku.Busch/Martin/Stewart
Everyone talks about Johnson at Lowes Motor Speedway but Kahne has the best avg. finish here the last 6 races(6.0 with 3 Wins and a 2nd)
Outrights
1.00 unit Kyle Busch (+585) @thegreek
0.50 unit Mark Martin(+900) @thegreek
0.25 unit Kasey Kahne(+2100) @thegreek
0.25 unit Brian Vickers(+2500) @thegreek
Good luck to everyone.
+6.24 units (Match-Ups)
+8.70 units (Props)
+5.42 units (Outrights)
Total: +20.36 units
Not sure if they will get this thing in tonight, weather not looking too good here in the Carolinas, tomorrow is questionable as well.
This is what I played:
Match-Ups
2.50 units Jeff Burton (-135) over David Ragan (@thegreek)
Like this one the best for today. Burton may be the most patient driver on the track and knows how to take care of his equipment, two important factors in a 600 mile marathon.
This is one of his 5 best tracks statistically(14.4 avg. in 30 starts-15 Top 10's/8 Top 5's/ 3 Wins). Won here last time out and has five Top 6 finishes in the last six races.
Also having a very good 2009 with 9 straight Top 15 runs (including 5 Top 10's). The only negative is his practice speeds (was 25th in Happy Hour) but think they will improve on that during the race. This is a proven car (chassis #271) already has ran 3 times in '09(3rd @Vegas/14th @Atlanta/12th @ Darlington) This is also the team that won the Pit Crew Challenge last week so another advantage there.
On the other hand Ragan and this Roush team has been a disappointment so far this year, only 1 Top 10 finish (@Daytona) and 7 finishes of 22nd or worse in 11 races.
1.50 units Carl Edwards (-105) over Kurt Busch (@5dimes)
Think its time for Carl to get his mojo back. Seems to run best on the 1.5 mile cookie-cutter tracks and the stats show it. Four Top 10's in the last 6 at Charlotte and this year two of his best runs were at Atlanta (3rd) and Texas (10th). Was 2nd in final practice on Saturday.
Kurt brought the car that dominated and won at Atlanta but so far has not shown that dominance in qualifying and practice (was 31st in final practice and qualified 17th). Still may run near the Top 10 but think Edwards has a chance at Top 5.
1.00 unit Kyle Busch (-130) over Jeff Gordon (@5dimes)
If Kyle makes it to the end he's definite Top 2 or 3... just don't think Gordon gets near that tonight.
1.00 unit Jamie McMurray (+105) over Martin Truex (@5dimes)
McMurray's season has been a case of good finish, bad finish but even though Jamie Mc is inconsistent he has had some good runs here (5th last race in October) and 3 Top 10's so far in 2009. Was good in both practice sessions yesterday and if things go right has a shot at the Top 10, with him though that could be a big if. Just not crazy about Truex today.
1.00 unit Juan Pablo Montoya (-125) over Sam Hornish (@5dimes)
I know this has been a horrible track for Montoya (32.2 avg. in 4 starts) mainly because of 2 crash outs, but I think that may change with this race. Like his chances at a Top 15 or maybe a little better.
Hornish should be pretty good also but with him that don't always translate to a good finish.
Props
1.5 units Kyle Busch (-115) under 6.5 (@5dimes)
Pretty simple, if Kyle finishes the 600 miles he'll be better than this number
1.00 unit Kurt Busch (-115) over 10.5 (@5dimes)
Not sure about a Top 10 for Kurt tonight
1.00 Dale Jr. (-130) under 20.5 (@5dimes)
Wow! Nobody thinks much of Jr. anymore, a Hendrick car not capable of a Top 20? I'll take a shot at it.
0.50 unit Kasey Kahne (+380) to win group (@sportsbook.com)
over Hamlin/Ku.Busch/Martin/Stewart
Everyone talks about Johnson at Lowes Motor Speedway but Kahne has the best avg. finish here the last 6 races(6.0 with 3 Wins and a 2nd)
Outrights
1.00 unit Kyle Busch (+585) @thegreek
0.50 unit Mark Martin(+900) @thegreek
0.25 unit Kasey Kahne(+2100) @thegreek
0.25 unit Brian Vickers(+2500) @thegreek
Good luck to everyone.